Trump Announces Plans to Impose Tariffs on Semiconductor Imports "Soon" SHFE Tin Price Drops Back Slightly [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing on September 5, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract rose slightly to 273,000 yuan/mt during the night session before fluctuating downward, closing at 271,200 yuan/mt, a 0.59% decrease from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) US President Trump stated that tariffs on semiconductor imports will be imposed "very soon," but products from companies like Apple, which have committed to increasing investments in the US, will be exempted. At a dinner with top global tech company executives and founders at the White House, Trump said, "I've talked about chips and semiconductors with the people here, and we will impose tariffs on those companies that are unwilling to come into (the US)." He added, "We will impose tariffs very soon. We will impose quite substantial tariffs, or not particularly high, but still quite substantial." Last month, during an event alongside Apple CEO Tim Cook, Trump mentioned plans to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductors, with exemptions for companies moving production to the US. Previously, Trump hinted that the tariff rate could far exceed 100%, possibly reaching as high as 200% or 300%. (2) In response to public concerns over some car makers' advertising and marketing practices, the China Advertising Association issued a statement on September 4, emphasizing that car manufacturers, dealers, and marketing agencies must not overlook the basic legal and ethical bottom lines. They should put on the "safety belt" of law and ethics for normal advertising and marketing communications, and apply the "brake" to unscrupulous advertising and marketing. The association noted that the recurring unscrupulous marketing in intelligent connected vehicles is a "lose-lose" situation for all parties, representing cut-throat competition within the industry, disrupting market order; for honest and lawful operators, it constitutes unfair competition; for consumers, it infringes upon their statutory right to consumer safety; and for brands, aside from the adverse impact of penalties, the loss of public trust due to societal skepticism can be devastating. (3) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly released the "Action Plan for Stable Growth in the Electronics Information Manufacturing Industry 2025-2026." The plan calls for enhancing the design of smart products for the elderly and increasing the supply of high-quality terminal products for smart health care. It also promotes the construction of advanced computing systems such as AI servers and efficient storage, improving the level of intelligent cloud services, and empowering high-computational scenarios like scientific research, autonomous driving, and biomedicine. The plan supports the development of industries including automotive electronics, marine electronics, aviation electronics, and medical electronics, facilitating the digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of these sectors. Building a Beidou-based precise spatio-temporal information service system to promote deep integration of Beidou with artificial intelligence, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and other fields.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major producing regions such as Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters maintained production halts for maintenance in September (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin bars in east China declined, and some producers saw lower operating rates; Electronics industry: Electronics end-users in south China entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only meeting essential needs; Other sectors: Demand in areas such as tinplate and chemicals remained stable, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Yesterday's spot market transactions were less heated than expected. Although tin prices fluctuated downward, most downstream and end-user enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude, with some downstream companies making small purchases. Most traders reported transactions of only around 10 mt, while a few traders traded more than one truckload.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should exercise caution and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]